Subramaian provides further evidence of over-estimation of GDP

Source: India Abroad News Service

July 10 (IANS) Days after Arvind Subramanian’s paper on overestimation of GDP figures sparked a debate, the former Chief Economic Advisor Subramanian on Wednesday came out with further evidence on the topic.

One of the key arguments he made was that post-2011 there has been a “collapse” in investment by 9.5 per cent, export by 16.7 per cent, import by 17.4 per cent, credit by 10.1 per cent, but the GDP grew by 0.8%.

Pointing at the figures, Subramanian said: “If this chart is right, then my understanding of India needs revision.”

The former Chief Economic Advisor also pointed out that post-2011, several problems dragged the growth of the economy, beginning from Twin Balance Sheet problem, Oil shock during the UPA-II and demonetization.

He questioned as to “how is it possible to have 7.5 per cent growth rate with with export, credit and investment falling?”

Subramanian’s research paper showed that India’s GDP growth had likely been overestimated by about 2.5 per cent points per year from 2011-12 to 2016-17, post which the PM’s Advisory Council had claimed that he had used selective indicators to derive the conclusion.

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